Robotaxis: Pipe Dream Or Future of Transportation?

For years, Tesla boss Elon Musk has been talking about cars that can drive themselves. On Thursday night, we might see if his big ideas can actually work.

The EV giant is about to show off its robotaxi project.

To put it simply, picture this: You're ready to go out. You tap your phone, and a car with no driver shows up at your door.

No chatting with a driver, no need for cash – just you and a smart car ready to take you where you want to go. Sounds like something from a futuristic science fiction movie, right?

Well, Tesla’s new project might get closer to making this real.

Some people are excited, thinking this could be huge. Others aren't so sure and think it might be too good to be true.

Let's take a closer look at this tech that could shake up how we all get from A to B.

What To Expect

Tesla's event at Warner Bros. Studios in California is shrouded in anticipation.

We might see the debut of a purpose-built "Cybercab" for their robotaxi fleet — a direct challenge to established ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft.

The Robotaxi is also expected to be a Level 5 autonomous vehicle and could feature a futuristic design, possibly a two-seater with upward-opening butterfly doors.

In Musk’s biography by Walter Isaacson, published last year, it was revealed that the robotaxi will be designed without a steering wheel or pedals.

Musk was adamant about avoiding what he referred to as an “amphibian frog” design, where these components could be detachable.

The Robotaxi is set to compete with companies like Waymo, which already operates autonomous taxi services in certain parts of the U.S.

Unlike Waymo’s system, which leverages LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and radar, Tesla’s Robotaxi relies solely on cameras for its autonomous driving capabilities. In fact, Musk said back in 2019 that “anyone relying on LiDAR is doomed.”

Fast forward to 2024, Mobileye suspended the development of some of its LiDAR systems. XPeng has also ditched this technology and followed in Tesla’s footsteps by using a pure vision advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS).

We’re also beginning to see Tesla speed up and fine-tune its full self-driving (FSD) assistance technology thanks to its reliance on vision.

However, we will know if Tesla is indeed right in moving away from LiDAR once its robotaxis hit the ground since that will give a clearer picture of its performance when compared to Waymo, which has crossed 22 million miles of driving on public roads.

What Robotaxi’s Cheerleaders Are Saying

Supporters of robotaxis paint a picture of a revolutionary future that's just around the corner. They see these self-driving vehicles as more than just a cool new tech toy – they're a solution to some of our biggest urban challenges.

According to them, Robotaxis could make this a reality by reducing the number of privately owned cars on the road. With fewer vehicles clogging up streets and highways, we might see a significant drop in traffic congestion and air pollution.

The supporters also point to the rapid advancements in self-driving technology as a sign that we're on the cusp of a major shift in how we think about transportation.

They envision a future where getting around is as easy as tapping a button on your phone, with no need to worry about parking, car maintenance, or even having a driver's license.

There's also a lot of excitement about the economic opportunities that robotaxis could create. The optimists talk about new jobs in tech and maintenance and even the possibility of people earning money by adding their cars to robotaxi fleets when they're not using them.

But… Critics Cry ‘Pipe Dream’

While some see a rosy future for robotaxis, skeptics are pumping the brakes on all the hype. These critics argue that the dream of fully autonomous vehicles zipping around our cities is still far from reality, and they've got some compelling reasons to back up their doubts.

First on their list of concerns is the current state of the technology. Despite years of development and bold promises, most self-driving systems still require human supervision.

Critics also point out that many of these vehicles only operate in limited areas under ideal conditions. "What happens when it snows?" they ask, or "How will these cars navigate a chaotic construction zone?"

These are the kinds of real-world challenges that make some experts skeptical about widespread robotaxi adoption anytime soon.

Then there's the issue of cost. Running a fleet of high-tech vehicles isn't cheap, and skeptical people argue that this could make robotaxi rides significantly more expensive than traditional ride-sharing services.

A report by MIT Technology Review noted, "It's almost impossible for them to compete with ride-sharing services yet, at least until a lot more robotaxis can hit the road" highlighting the financial hurdles these companies face.

Some worry that without a clear path to profitability, the whole robotaxi concept might end up being more of a costly experiment than a viable business.

Safety is another major concern for the skeptics. They point to incidents involving self-driving cars as evidence that the technology isn't ready for prime time. 

Last year, GM’s Cruise division had its permits to run driverless vehicles in California revoked by the state's Department of Motor Vehicles following an incident where a pedestrian, initially hit by a human-driven car, was dragged 20 feet by a Cruise vehicle, causing severe injuries.

Lastly, there's the complex web of legal and regulatory challenges. The current laws and infrastructure aren't set up to handle driverless vehicles. 

"We think this is still several years away and numerous technological hurdles, safety tests, and regulatory approvals are still standing in the way," said CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson.

Wrapping Up

Regardless of the technological differences in Tesla and Waymo’s approaches, both companies share the same vision – they are driving us toward a driverless future. The market is nascent enough that there’s room for them both.

Whether this future will be immediately profitable or scalable remains to be seen. Waymo has been ramping up its services slowly, but Tesla’s entry and Uber’s recent moves could help it pick up momentum.

As far as end consumers like you and us are concerned, a driverless car seems like a far-fetched idea today, but it could just be as normal as an operator-less lift.

That's all for this week! If you found these updates useful, you'll like more from this newsletter. Get deeper dives, hot takes, and all the latest tech news delivered straight to your inbox.